What changed overnight
Tokenized NVDA, AMD and SMH traded −2.3% to −2.9% on weekend venues (xStocks, Ondo). Options skew on SMH is now the steepest in 60 days. BTC funding spiked to +0.082%, open interest +18%, consistent with crowded longs — COIN and MSTR exposure at risk Monday.
Agent findings
- Risk Beta-net projected 63.1% at open vs. IMA cap 60%. Trim NVDA 12% + SMH Nov 215/205 put spread.
- Macro CPI tomorrow 08:30 ET. Hot-print scenario (+0.4% MoM core) = −38 bps NAV. Suggest ladder: 10Y DV01 hedge 0.6× book.
- Flows META crowding score 92 (top decile). HF ownership +7pts QoQ. De-grossing risk if VIX breaks 22.
- Earnings JPM reports Thu — supplier read-across for V, MA. Tone model suggests cautious guidance (confidence 71%).
- Digital Tokenized AAPL basis −1.9%; arb desk could add; depth thin on Securitize.
- PnL MSFT contributing −24 bps MTD · alpha half-life expired, flagged for trim.
- Pos Intel NVDA thesis drift ↑: insider sales $220M + activist 13D (Elliot).
The three decisions for today
- Approve the Risk & Guideline card trimming NVDA 12%. Alpha cost 6bps, headroom restored, IMA clean.
- Layer CPI hedge via Macro agent ladder. Pre-trade what-if shows <2bps carry.
- Halve META or buy OTM Dec put spread to pre-empt de-grossing.